Submitted by Stat Intelligence Earlier this season, we invented the KRIB Index because the New York Knicks were playing like they had re-invented basketball (Knicks Re-Invent Basketball). They had a higher number of made treys than giveaways more than 30 games into the regular season?something nobody else in the league could do even one game deep into the season. Maybe you had to be a stathead to love it. But, Knicks fans certainly loved the pop and sizzle the team was showing on offense. Recently, that pop and sizzle are gone. The Knicks are regressing in those key offensive stats, and have grown passive on defense after an enthusiastic start. Recent games where the Knicks have played like KRAP: New York (-1.5) lost tonight to Toronto 100-98 New York (+4) lost to Indiana 125-91 New York (-8) lost to Toronto 92-88 New York (-3.5) lost to the LA Clippers 102-88 New York (-6) won at Minnesota 100-94 (push) New York (-4.5) lost at Washington 106-96 That?s 1-5 straight up, and 0-5-1 against market expectations over their last six games. They?ve been a .500 caliber team since Amare Stoudemire returned to uniform?after being about? 70% team while he was out. I don?t want to suggest it?s all his fault. The veterans may have reached a fatigue point. It?s certain that complacency set it on both sides of the ball after that great start. It?s all added up to a recent disaster. *Two double digit losses and and non-covers (by 17.5 and 30 points) against the playoff bound LA Clippers and Indiana Pacers. *A double digit loss and a 16-point miss against a Washington team that?s been performing at an Eastern Conference playoff caliber level statistically since John Wall returned. *A sweep at the hands of Toronto! Tonight was a revenge game, yet the team was still acting like every night?s a party and there?s no reason to exert yourself for 48 full minutes because that?s no fun. Madison Square Garden was a fun KRIB when the going was good. If the team doesn?t get serious on both sides of the ball soon, fans will be dealing with a lot of KRAP. Toronto 100, New York 98 2-Point Percentage: New York 53%, Toronto 45% 3-Point Shooting: New York 10/28, Toronto 7/18 Free Throws: New York 18/23, Toronto 23/28 1?s and 2?s: New York 68, Toronto 79 Rebounds: New York 42, Toronto 31 Turnovers: New York 16, Toronto 9 The stats looked worse than this before New York rallied to win the fourth quarter 28-21. New York?s recent defensive issues showed up again here with a low number of forced turnovers, and a loss at the free throw line. It was far from a defensive disaster?but the market expected about 95-96 points for the Raptors and they reached the century mark. We see once again a disastrous turnover night on offense. The great passing of the first 35 games or so has completely disappeared. This team doesn?t have the margin of error to live with 15-16 turnovers every time they take the floor. Big game again for Rudy Gay of the Raptors. He?s having fun in Toronto. I?m afraid that the media?s general refusal to acknowledge the superiority of the West over the East caused them to miss the degree that Gay would be stepping down in class. Since joining the Raptors, he?s played six games against Eastern Conference defenses?and is averaging 24 points per game. He only averaged 17.2 this year for Memphis against a West-heavy schedule. It?s like a decent American League pitcher getting traded to the National League in baseball. A couple other early games I wanted to run the numbers from? Houston 106, Brooklyn 96 2-Point Percentage: Houston 53%, Brooklyn 49% 3-Point Shooting: Houston 16/30, Brooklyn 10/30 Free Throws: Houston 8/12, Brooklyn 6/11 1?s and 2?s: Houston 58, Brooklyn 66 Rebounds: Houston 37, Brooklyn 41 Turnovers: Houston 16, Brooklyn 13 The Nets are still getting outclassed by teams who are over .500. And, this loss at home to a team from the West comes on the heels of recent losses to San Antonio and the LA Lakers on this floor. Those are far from embarrassing numbers up above from the Nets though. They won 1?s and 2?s, rebounding, and turnovers. Tough to win when your opponent is 16 of 30 on treys. Houston is making that spread attack work for them. You get the sense that a playoff opponent will come up with something to deal with it after repeated viewing. Not that anyone in the top four is relishing that challenge. Houston is 31-26 for the season now, 31-24-2 against market expectations. Don?t forget that they had that brutal fatigue stretch (a pair of 4-in-5?s in consecutive weeks) that really took the wind out of their sails. If you take out the 1-8 straight up, 0-9 market debacle from that fatigue period, you?re looking at a team that?s 30-18 straight up, 31-15-2 ATS when relatively or very fresh. Strong and significantly underrated. Washington 119, Denver 113 2-Point Percentage: Denver 59%, Washington 48% 3-Point Shooting: Denver 4/22, Washington 11/24 Free Throws: Denver 31/37, Washington 24/33 1?s and 2?s: Denver 101, Washington 86 Rebounds: Denver 36, Washington 49 Turnovers: Denver 11, Washington 18 How about Washington?! They do it again here, as they knock off one of the hottest teams in the league to maintain their recent pace of playoff caliber basketball. Washington is 20-7 ATS its last 27 games. They did stub their toe entering and coming out of the All-Star Break. So, it?s not like they?re automatic every night. But, this was a good sign that the whole thing wasn?t a mirage. I was starting to wonder after the losses to Detroit and Toronto. Though, the more you study the boxscore, the less exciting this win is. Tonight?s victory was keyed by great three-point shooting, mixed with poor three-point shooting from the Nuggets. That?s not great news if you?re a Wizards fan hoping this will continue. Washington allowed 59% on two-point shooting while turning the ball over 18 times. Not exactly textbook. The line may be catching up given that Denver was only -3 here. Washington was +7 in made treys but only won by two made treys (+21 points from behind the arc in a game they only won by six). Let?s keep an eye on this. Some red flags are starting to wave that the party is over, at least when Washington is playing teams who know what they?re doing. They may still offer value against tank job teams or mid-level guys that aren?t bringing peak intensity. Not going to stay up late to write up San Antonio/Golden State and Portland/Lakers. You avid fans are watching one (or both) of those games already. Back with you late Saturday afternoon and in the evening to crunch the numbers in major college action. Wanted to thank all of you who popped in yesterday for that lengthy piece on tips for the average gambler keyed by ESPN?sarticle on Haralabos Voulgaris. I was concerned it might have been too long. But, it turned out to be the most read (and re-tweeted) article here in the blog in quite some time. Off the charts. For more blogs by Stat Intelligence, click here. Tags: NBA New York Knicks Stat Intelligence |